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The recent equity rebound stalled as investor rate cut bets were made uncertain by Fed commentary. Fed President Neel Kashkari said rates might not be restrictive enough to clamp down on inflation. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly higher Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average continuing to pull slightly higher. His remarks followed similar hawkishness from Fed President Tom Barkin on Monday, who indicated that the economy will need to slow down more before policy can pivot.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, , Tom Barkin, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Disney, Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Minneapolis Federal, Chicago Locations: Minneapolis, Here's
An attendant holds a sample of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknote, with three-dimensional holographic technology to prevent forgery, for a photograph at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. The yen gave up ground in early trade on Thursday, reversing direction after a sudden surge against the dollar overnight that traders and analysts were quick to attribute to intervention by Japanese authorities. The dollar was 0.9% higher at 155.98 yen as of 0100 GMT, retracing about half of its late Wednesday surge from around 157.55 to exactly 153 over a period of about 30 minutes. "The 'sneak attack' element really is the MOF (Japan's Ministry of Finance) looking to punish speculators and send a warning about shorting the yen." That helped lift the dollar to a 34-year peak of 160.245 yen on Monday and also spurred a sharp reversal which official data suggested was due to Japanese intervention totalling about $35 billion.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Masato Kanda, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Powell, Jack Mclntyre Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Capital.com, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, Brandywine Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Melbourne
More voters trust Donald Trump than President Joe Biden to deal with inflation and the cost of living, their top concerns for the U.S., according to the latest NBC News poll. The poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide found that 52% of respondents said Trump would better handle inflation and the cost of living, while 30% said the same of Biden. For example, while Trump lambasts Biden's economy, the president has doubled down on the claim that the U.S. "has the best economy in the world." But voters' rosy memory of the Trump economy has been a consistent thread in early polling and continues to weigh on Biden's momentum. Despite Biden's efforts to refocus the conversation on other economic issues, inflation appears to remain an unavoidable barrier to winning over the public's trust.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Herbert Hoover, Donald Organizations: NBC, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, China, Scranton , Pennsylvania, U.S
Dollar firms, yen skids as Fed cut wagers crumble
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022 as the yen slid toward what was then a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. The Japanese central bank last month ended eight years of negative interest rates but yen has remained rooted near 151 per dollar levels since then. The euro was last at $1.0744, having dropped 1% on Wednesday ahead of the European Central Bank, or ECB, meeting later in the day. The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.651, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.17% to $0.598.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Kyle Rodda, Rodda, Kazuo Ueda, Kevin Cummins, Sterling Organizations: Fed, Reuters, Bank of, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, U.S, NatWest, Treasury, European Central Bank, ECB, New Zealand Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, U.S
A Fed rate cut usually signals something bad happening, Bespoke's Paul Hickey told CNBC. But the stock market rally doesn't really need the Fed to cut rates in order to keep climbing. "Be careful what you wish for," he told CNBC, adding: "They cut rates for a reason, as we've talked about in the past, and they usually don't cut rates because things are going great." Related storiesThat may be hard to hear for investors, as markets have spent months deciphering Fedspeak for clues as to when the first rate cut will happen. "Last week's Fed meeting put the nail in the coffin on a rate cut, and the market had its best week of the year," he said.
Persons: Bespoke's Paul Hickey, , Paul Hickey, we've, Hickey, it's Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed hawkishness not priced into markets, says Ariel's Charlie BobrinskoyCharlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chair and head of the investment group, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss a potential market pullback depending on the Fed's sentiment on future economic data, rates' effects on stocks, and more.
Persons: Charlie Bobrinskoy Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.
Persons: , Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness
Of the banks under Wells Fargo's coverage, Discover was the first to trim its online savings account rate for this rate cycle, according to analyst Michael Kaye. It's a marked turn from when online banks jockeyed for customers' deposits as the Fed began raising rates in March 2022. Too good to last See below for a table of online banks and the APY they're offering on savings accounts. The catch with savings accounts is that banks can opt to tweak their yields at any time. Investors hoping to play a lower rate environment with exchange-traded funds may want to consider buying intermediate-term bond funds .
Persons: Michael Kaye, Banks, Ally, Cowen, Moshe Orenbuch, Cash that's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Discover Financial, Financial, Fed, Investors Locations: Wells
"We heard at the December meeting that no official expected to raise rates further as a baseline outcome. And we've heard that Fed officials are beginning the discussions around rate cuts," Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist, said in an interview. Now, there's considerably more uncertainty as multiple statements from Fed officials point to a more cautious approach about declaring victory over inflation. The inflation rate judged by core personal consumption expenditures prices, a U.S. Department of Commerce measure that the Fed favors, indicates the real funds rate to be around 2.4%. Fed officials figure the long-run real rate to be closer to 0.5%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we've, Matthew Luzzetti, Luzzetti, He'll, Bill English Organizations: Federal, Washington , D.C, Xinhua News Agency, Getty, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Bank's, Fed, U.S . Department of Commerce, Yale School of Management Locations: Washington ,
The S & P 500 , which had consolidated with a low-volatility sideways slide for three weeks, nudged to a new 20-month high just above 4600, almost precisely a 20% year-to-date gain. Just because the S & P 500 is at 4600 and Federal-funds futures markets project high odds of several rate cuts next year, it doesn't mean the former is reliant on the latter. Yet — just relax — in seven of the past 12 years, the S & P 500 went on to surpass this year-ahead analyst composite target. It's pretty popular to cast doubt on the achievability of the consensus 11.8% forecast S & P 500 earnings growth for 2024. A broadening beyond 2023's growth leadership is necessary for further S & P 500 gains.
Persons: YTD, Jerome Powell, Powell, John Butters, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Fed, Bank of America, Wall, Merck, Pfizer, Citi, Treasury
The Books That Explain 2023 - The New York Times
  + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Ezra Klein | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
“Chip War” is a reminder of the physical artifacts that underlie what we so wrongly describe as the cloud. The title of Miller’s book is, for now, rhetorical, but I found myself wondering how long that would remain the case. There are more histories of this era of American politics than any bookshelf can hold. The apogee of America’s welfare state, with all its limitations, was coterminous with the height of the Cold War. But I believe a new one has already begun, and it is being shaped more by China than by any American politician, including Trump or Biden.
Persons: Chris Miller’s, ” Miller, Miller, Biden, Trump, Gary Gerstle’s, , Gerstle Organizations: Deal, Biden, Soviet Union, Trump Locations: United States, China, Taiwan, Outmaneuvering China, Soviet
Morning Bid: Thanksgiving starters of AI and oil
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Thanksgiving may make for a clipped U.S. markets week, but there's plenty to chew on around the world before then - and a feast of intrigue in the artificial intelligence space. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso and dollarizing the economy and slashing spending with potentially painful reforms. The risk premium between German and Italian 10-year yields tightened to 170 bps - the lowest since Sept. 21.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, That's, thrall, Javier Milei, Milei, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey ,, Francois Villeroy de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Big Tech, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank, Bayer, Federal Reserve Bank of England, Andrew Bailey , Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Technologies, Keysight Technologies, Holdings Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Tokyo, Europe, Canada, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
A recently edgy bond market gobbled all that up. Funds' bonds allocation in November soared 18 points over the month to leave them net 19% overweight - almost 3 standard deviations above long-term averages. Asset managers' overweight bond positions - or at least those in government bonds and U.S. Treasuries - tends to be mirrored by big short positions in Treasury futures among speculative hedge funds. CFTC numbers show the scale of that speculative 'Big Short' on the flipside of the mounting 'Big Long' built by regular asset managers. Lamont points out that U.S. Treasury yields and investment grade corporate debt yields would have to rise about another 100bps for the capital losses to wipe out current yields.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lazard, Ronald Temple, Lombard Odier's Florian Ielpo, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Jason Pride, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of America's, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, what's
AdvertisementAdvertisementIn late August, the US approved an $80 million military grant to arm Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion. It's part of a plan to wrong-step China's leaders and make them uncertain about how exactly the US would respond to Chinese attacks on Taiwan. "Those military packages are the Biden administration's efforts to build Taiwan's defense capabilities at a faster pace to match PLA [Chinese military] modernization efforts," said Kuo. Provoking ChinaSince the 1970s, the US has had a delicate diplomatic relationship with China, acknowledging the "One China" policy under which China claims ownership of Taiwan, yet also backing Taiwanese autonomy. "That could easily provoke exactly the Chinese attack on Taiwan that US policy aims to deter," he wrote.
Persons: Xi, , Biden, Xi Jinping, HECTOR RETAMAL, Joe Biden, Graeme Thomson, Naiyu Kuo, Kuo, Thompson, Hugh White, Beijing's, Kavanagh Organizations: Taiwan, Service, Bloomberg, BBC, Communists, CNN, Getty Images, White, Eurasia Group, PLA, China, Strategic Studies, Australian National University, US Locations: China, Taiwan, Taiwan's, Taiwan Strait, China's, Fujian province, AFP, Washington ,, Beijing, Washington
Will the S & P 500 be nearer to 5,000 by the end of the year? Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Andrew Slimmon was among some on Wall Street who earlier this year believed so. The S & P 500 closed at 4,193.80 on Tuesday. Although markets have been volatile lately, Slimmon expects the S & P 500 to be closer to 5,000 than 4,000. But his S & P 500 prediction is predicated on a few factors, Slimmon told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia. "
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Andrew Slimmon, Slimmon, inching, CNBC's, There's, Stocks Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment, CNBC, Treasury, . Federal, CNBC Market, Survey, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Windows, United Rentals Locations: ., financials
Plenty of bond investors have been burned calling a bottom in a selloff that has taken Treasuries to the cusp of an unprecedented third straight year of losses. One potential near-term pitfall is Friday’s U.S. payrolls data, which could revive expectations of Fed hawkishness if they come in stronger than expected. The rise in Treasury yields has reached far beyond the bond market. The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July high, as rising bond yields offer investment competition to equities while threatening to raise the cost of capital for companies. “The market is running with the idea that the Fed is done hiking, which they may or may not be,” he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell nodded, Bonds, , Jack McIntyre, , ” McIntyre, Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne, Bond, Josh Emanuel, Powell, We've, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, ” Wilensky, Noah Wise, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S . Treasury, Brandywine, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wilshire
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 5%
  + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 5.0% on Monday, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week. The run-up in yields on the 10-year Treasury bond, seen as a safe-haven in times of economic uncertainty and a benchmark for borrowing costs around the world, has been driven by investors pricing in stronger U.S. growth as well as fiscal slippage. The 10-year yield touched 5.004% on Monday, up around 8 basis points (bps) on the day. Treasury borrowing costs have climbed, and a divided Congress has bickered over next year's spending bills while using stopgap measures to avert a shutdown of government operations. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury was last up 4 bps at 5.125%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Kyle Rodda, Vidya Ranganathan, Harry Robertson, Kevin Buckland, Neil Fullick, Alun John Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Israel
The mix of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy looks similar to the 1980s, BofA said. In that decade, those circumstances led to high yields and a strong dollar, similar to what's occurring today. As high yields have generally corresponded with a strong dollar, the greenback will remain historically strong, even if inflation is tamed and interest rates reverse course. AdvertisementAdvertisementBofA continues to forecast a non-landing scenario for the economy, which would support both high yields and a strong dollar. This is a case of markets getting concerned about US debt sustainability, both weakening the USD and increasing yields," Bofa added.
Persons: BofA, , Reaganomics, Volcker, Bofa Organizations: Service, Bank of America, FX
Valuations have swelled, with the Magnificent Seven trading at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E of 18.3. “Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The reallocation of funds going forward is going to suggest lower returns and more difficulty for the Magnificent Seven to maintain their leadership." The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream. Some investors are also drawing distinctions among the seven stocks.
Persons: Aly, Tesla, Sameer Samana, Tajinder Dhillon, Tim Pagliara, CapWealth, Pagliara, Elon Musk, LSEG Datastream, Torsten Slok, Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, U.S, Tesla, Wells, Investment Institute, Google, Facebook, Federal, Treasury, , Global, Apollo Global Management, Brandywine Global, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Apple
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the release of the Fed policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 20, 2023. The top monetary policymaker will speak at noon ET to the Economic Club of New York at a critical time for the U.S. economy. Inflation numbers have been improving lately, but Treasury yields have been surging, sending conflicting messages about where monetary policy might be headed. Markets largely expect the Fed to stay on hold with rates, but they will be looking to Powell for confirmation and clarification on how officials view both current conditions and longer-term trends. "Really, their ultimate goal is to keep financial conditions tight so inflation comes down," he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Luke Tilley, Tilley Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Economic, of New, Wilmington Trust Locations: Washington ,, of New York, U.S, Wilmington
Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S
REUTERS/Cagla GurdoganDaily retail investor flows into the benchmark iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF touched their highest level last week since March 2020, according to data from Vanda Research. The fund saw net retail inflows rise to $1.2 billion so far this quarter, Vanda’s data showed, even as prices slid to their lowest level since 2010 amid a sharp rise in yields. The ETF saw retail net inflows of nearly $746 million in the second quarter. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is down 13.3% in the third quarter and has fallen 10.4% year-to-date. Overall, the ETF saw nearly $3.9 billion in net inflows so far this quarter, according to Lipper data, slowing from nearly $6 billion last quarter but still on track to post its ninth straight quarter of inflows.
Persons: , Noel Archard, Ihor Dusaniwsky, Dusaniwsky Organizations: Reuters, Federal, REUTERS, Treasury, Vanda Research, Partners Locations: Ankara, Turkey
Morning Bid: Oil spike delivers coup de grace to dire Q3
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A nighttime view of the Torrance Refinery, an oil refinery operated by PBF Energy, in Torrance, California, U.S., March 10, 2022. The U.S. Treasury completes more than $130 billion of new debt sales this week with another 7-year note auction later on Thursday. But even though the euro bounced back from 2023 lows today, there was better news on the inflation front from Europe. As China's markets headed for the Golden Week holidays next week, stocks there were in the red too - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) hitting its lowest for the year so far. * U.S. Treasury auctions 7-year notes, 4-week bills* U.S. corporate earnings: Nike, Accenture, CarmaxReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsEditing by Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Bing Guan, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, it's, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Thomas Barkin, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Torrance Refinery, PBF Energy, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Kansas, Fed, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, Accenture, Carmax Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Torrance, Torrance , California, U.S, Washington, United States, Europe
One-year Treasury note yields are about a percentage point higher than those on 10-year bonds. That has meant global investors can avoid the relatively less liquid, longer-tenure bonds just for the sake of extra yield and premium. LSEG Lipper data shows U.S. short-term bond funds have outperformed this year, delivering a gain of 2.2% in price terms compared with an average 2.1% dip in long-term bond funds. Most analysts expect short-term bond funds to continue to lure more money in the months ahead. "We are anchoring portfolios with the higher yielding short-term bonds.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Coons, SPDR, MATURITIES, Matt Dmytryszyn, Jeff Klingelhofer, Klingelhofer, Winthrop's Coons, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Morningstar, Treasury, Reuters, Winthrop Capital Management, Federal Reserve, SPDR Bloomberg, Thornburg Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Telemus, Bengaluru
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The BOJ held interest rates at -0.1% on Friday and reiterated its pledge to keep supporting the economy until it's confident inflation will stay at the 2% target. "We have yet to foresee inflation stably and sustainably achieve our price target," BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a press conference. The yen dropped as low as 148.42 to the dollar, nearing the 150-mark at which analysts have said government intervention to prop up the currency is likely. It was on track to eke out a weekly increase of around 0.2%, its 10th rise in as many weeks.
Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda, we've, Alvin Tan, Shunichi Suzuki, RBC's Tan, Treasuries, Ray Sharma, Ong, Sterling, BoE, Harry Robertson, Rae Wee, Christopher Cushing, Sonali Paul, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Japan's Finance, Ministry, Finance, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, France, Asia, Tokyo, London, Singapore
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